Amazing isn’t it!

We still fall prey to this. I can’t remember the exact details, but in psychology there’s a test you can do where you have to estimate an answer within a range where it’s 99% correct. So for example how many kilometer/miles is it to drive from LA to New York. So you could say 1-1,000,000 miles and be 99% correct. But most people say something like 1000-2000 or something like that. And after taking the test, of the 10 or so questions, most people got 50% wrong! With ranges that were suppose to be 99% correct.

You also see this effect when people gather metrics. A lot of times people will remove the extremes from their datasets to balance it out. Bad move! They’re there for a reason

I figured it was a good time of year to use such an intro

I absolutely agree with you on deflation. I myself have been talking about the real estate crash since 2005 and people thought I was crazy then.

My newest comment that I get called crazy for is believing that the government won’t be able to honor it’s social security commitments, especially for old age! There’s just too many baby boomers and not enough money to cover the costs. Of course it will be too late by the time anyone decides to act.

Which also brings up another point. If a government can’t meet it’s financial commitments/obligations, does that mean it’s in default/bankruptcy? I know that if I can’t meet my payments I’m considered bankrupt. But some governments have the option of cancelling their commitments with no issues. Must be nice…

Happy New Year to you and your family as well!

For a moment there I thought you’d either lost it, or gotten started on the New Years mixer drinks a tad early…

Deflation. Funny you should mention this as I was saying this twelve months ago and folks said I was mad. Inflation, yep, they get that. But not deflation, nor why it’s potentially worse.

Oh well!

Happy New Year to you and your family!